Explained | The events unfolding in BSP and what it means for UP 2022 polls

When six Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) legislators met with Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Akhilesh Yadav on Tuesday, it triggered speculations of a split in the Mayawati-led party with the Uttar Pradesh elections fast approaching. These rebels are expected to announce their own parties.

Here's a look at what this means for the BSP and how it affects the party in the upcoming polls.

Splits in BSP are not news

Since its formation in 1984 by Kanshi Ram, the BSP has seen many loyals turning rebels as the powers in the government changed.

Ten years into its formation, the BSP suffered its first split when Raj Bahadur, one of the founding members of the party, parted ways with 20 legislators and formed a new outfit. BSP MLAs accused the party of holding them hostage to influence their votes and Bahadur walked out.

Also read: BSP stares at yet another split; Rebels likely to join SP

General Secretary of the party Sone Lal Patel exited the party to form the Apna Dal, which is now in alliance with the BJP. In 2003, another split occurred when around a dozen party MLAs defected to the SP and helped the latter form government in the state.

BSP had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the SP and had managed to win ten seats in UP. It was then expected that BSP and SP could fight the 2022 assembly poll in UP together. The bonhomie between the two arch-rivals was short-lived and they parted ways soon after the LS polls.

The current crisis started unraveling last year during the Rajya Sabha polls when the six MLAs were suspended for anti-party activities.

Why have these leaders quit the party?

BSP has been in disarray mainly owing to what many party leaders say is the dictatorial attitude of its supremo Mayawati. There have also been allegations of financial demands made to the leaders.

Mayawati recently expelled Legislative Party leader Lalji Verma and national general secretary Ram Achal Rajbahar. All those removed from the party in the past five years have complained about the arrogance of the leadership and its unapproachability. Mayawati's mercurial temperament and inability to work with other leaders in the party were also key issues.

Mayawati grew more distant from her party workers when she claimed that her party workers would support the BJP to ensure the defeat of SP candidates. This was after some MLAs had met with Akhilesh Yadav.

Also read: Mayawati calls BSP MLAs joining Samajwadi Party an 'illusion '

At the height of its power, the BSP had a strong lineup of leaders from all sections of society, who later deserted the party. But BSP's social engineering formula has failed to click in the elections after the migration of almost all senior upper caste leaders to the BJP since 2014.

Founding members of the party Dara Singh Chauhan and Rajya Sabha MP Jugal Kishore defected to the BJP. Also Mayawati's aide Indrajeet Saroj quit the party to join the saffron camp after the BJP won in 2017 polls.

Founder member R K Chaudhary, who is now in SP, is quoted by Indian Express as saying, "The party has completely digressed from the movement of Kanshi Ram. While there is no denying that there is still a section of Dalit that regards her as their leader, how long will that continue if they feel she will not fight those who have oppressed them?"

What does this mean for the polls?

BSP's future in the polls next year is uncertain, as the ruling BJP, opposition parties like SP and Congress have begun preparations.

Mayawati's core voter base of the Jatavs, the dominant section of Dalits in the UP, is expected to remain with her, irrespective of which senior party leaders exit the BSP. However, the defections are likely to affect her reach to voters of other communities.

The party had successfully weaved the winning combination of 'Brahmin-Dalits-Muslims' and rode to power in 2007. But Muslims have since shifted loyalty to the Samajwadi Party. Even a section of the Dalits, barring those who hail from Mayawati's caste, have shifted allegiance to BJP.

The party is now left with a vote bank of 10 per cent, which can not ensure victory at polls. Since its best performance in the 2007 elections, when the party secured a vote share of around 30 per cent, it has fallen steadily in the following two elections.

BSP rebels have not yet joined the SP nor have they formed their own outfit as they still lack the required numbers to split the party. Of the 11 MLAs, who either left the party or were expelled, three have expressed willingness to join the BJP. So technically, those inclined to join the SP need the support of a few more of the MLAs to split the party. BSP had 18 MLAs in the UP assembly.