Political parties are pegging their hopes on districts with a higher voter turnout this time compared to the 2018 elections, to improve their prospects. For, a higher voter turnout augurs well for candidates who had lost with a narrow margin previously.
Karnataka has seen an overall marginal increase in the voter turnout at 73.19 per cent from the previous 72.44 per cent recorded during the 2018 Assembly polls.
KPCC spokesperson Ramesh Babu saw this as an optimistic development for the prospects of Congress. "This shows a huge anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP. This will work in favour of Congress," he said.
The JD(S), too, is banking on higher turnout in some districts where it had previously lost with a narrow margin.
In Tumakuru, the voter turnout is 83.58 per cent while it was 82.43 per cent five years ago. The JD(S) foresees a good tiding here. "In the previous election, at least in four constituencies here, be it Pavagada, Chikkanayakanakalli, Turuvekere or Kunigal, the party lost with a narrow margin. The higher percentage of vote should be helpful to us," a JD(S) leader said.
In Pavagada for example, JD(S) candidate K M Thimmarayappa had lost by a margin of 409 votes against Congress' Venkataramanappa.
Interestingly, several districts in north Karnataka have seen a higher voter turnout this time. An analysis by Catribil Consulting shows that the winning margins of candidates in these districts are lower than the state average (18,330 votes), giving scope for candidates who had lost by narrow margins previously to stand a good chance this time with increased voter turnout.
The voter turnout aside, just the anti-incumbency wave would work in favour of the Congress, the party's working president Ramalinga Reddy said. Citing his own instance in BTM Layout, Reddy said his victory margin was 49,000 votes in 2013, which dropped to 20,000 in 2018. The expectation this time was that this margin would go up by at least 15,000-20,000 votes.
However, BJP general secretary N Ravi Kumar begged to differ. "Higher voter turnout does not necessarily signify an anti-incumbency wave. In fact. I think people have voted in a larger number to bring back the double engine government. On the day of the results, you will see the exit polls being disproved," he maintained.