Ajit Pawar’s open revolt against NCP patriarch and uncle Sharad Pawar is the culmination of a determined bid by the BJP to end its political isolation in Maharashtra after splitting up with its oldest ally the Shiv Sena in October 2019 and to minimise potential electoral losses in the state which sends second highest contingent of MPs to the Lok Sabha.
Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats and in the 2019 general elections, BJP in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena won 42 seats, a scorecard that BJP would have found difficult to repeat against the Congress-NCP and Shiv Sena (UBT) alliance.
As such, Ajit Pawar’s defection is the second debilitating blow dealt to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) as influential leaders in the NCP including former deputy CM Chhagan Bhujbal crossed over to the treasury benches a year and three days after Eknath Shinde split Shiv Sena to become the chief minister with BJP’s help.
Perhaps, BJP’s attempts to create an alternative coalition vis a vis MVA was also expedited by NCP Sharad Pawar’s decision to set the ball rolling last month to settle the leadership issues in the party by choosing his daughter and Baramati MP Supriya Sule over nephew Ajit Pawar as one of the party’s working presidents along with his close aide and former union minister Praful Patel. Though, Patel’s decision to leave his political mentor and align with Ajit Pawar has surprised many considering Pawar senior is known for bowling “political googlies”.
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The Sunday coup also adds to the NDA tally at the national level which had shrunk over the last five years with four powerful regional allies - Shiv Sena, JD(U), Akali Dal, and the TDP - parting ways as BJP asserted its position across the country.
After the Karnataka polls, the BJP has sought to reach out to some of its former allies like the SAD and TDP for a patch-up. In states like Bihar where chances of reconciliation with JD(U) appeared bleak, BJP has looked to wean away smaller parties like Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM.
Ajit Pawar is comparatively a much bigger catch considering he brings in a completely new element to the BJP alliance - the influential Maratha vote which has traditionally been with either the Congress or the NCP.
In terms of the battle of perception, the NCP split takes some sheen away from the Opposition’s efforts to forge a grand non-BJP front at the center as Pawar, the senior most leader in the opposition front, could not keep his flock together.
And lastly, Ajit Pawar’s rebellion may also pave the way for a long pending Cabinet rejig in the Modi government at the Center as some of the new and potential allies would want to be accommodated in the Delhi power circuit.