The BJP has achieved multiple goals in Maharashtra - not only it has managed to weaken the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP, it has also created a dent in the Maha Vikas Aghadi, besides firing warning shots at the nationwide Opposition unity.
“It is something that had taken several years,” according to highly-placed sources in the know of things.
The situation had started changing from 2014 when the Narendra Modi-wave was sweeping India.
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It is necessary to look at the situation in 2014 - when in the Lok Sabha polls, the Modi-magic gripped the country and the BJP-led NDA came to power ousting the Congress-led UPA.
While in 2014, the Congress-NCP Democratic Front and the Shiv Sena-BJP saffron alliance contested the Lok Sabha elections together, the two alliances broke in the run up to the Vidhan Sabha polls - and the state went under the President’s Rule briefly.
“In 2014, the BJP became the No 1 party in the state but fell short of majority and it was then Sharad Pawar extended outside support to the BJP but did not join the government. However, the Shiv Sena joined the government later but was not offered the post of deputy chief minister or portfolios like home, finance, revenue, energy, rural development. This led to Uddhav Thackeray’s party functioning like an opposition within the government and regularly attacked Modi and his lieutenant Amit Shah, former BJP president and now union home minister,” the sources said.
In fact, Thackeray was the first to speak out on demonetisation.
Around 2017, the NCP and the BJP opened negotiations but it did not materialise.
In 2019, the saffron alliance was on the verge of breaking but Shah airdashed to Mumbai and sealed a deal with Thackeray.
The BJP swept the Lok Sabha polls again and in Vidhan Sabha polls, the BJP again fell short of majority. Thackeray started demanding the post of chief minister which BJP was not ready to concede. Pawar convinced Congress leadership - Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi for an alliance with Shiv Sena. This led to the birth of the MVA and the BJP was prevented from coming to power- though NCP negotiated a deal with the BJP and backed out.
For Fadnavis, it was a blow as despite being the No 1 party, the party slipped from the treasury benches to the opposition side.
However, as the leader of opposition, he continued to mount pressure on Thackeray during the two-and-a-half-years, which also saw the Covid-19 pandemic.
“They got a chance when Nana Patole resigned as Speaker to become the state Congress president. Things appeared in sight,” the sources said.
The BJP engineered a split in the Shiv Sena in June 2022 and Eknath Shinde walked out. This led to the collapse of the MVA and Shinde, a confidante of the Thackerays, became the chief minister. Even NCP too wanted a deal but backed out again, according to revelations of deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar. To ensure the smooth functioning of the government, Fadnavis had to become the deputy chief minister.
“The Election Commission verdict on who is the real Shiv Sena and who gets the symbol and the Supreme Court verdict in the Shinde vs Thackeray case gave a chance to the BJP to plug all loopholes and then brought in NCP in its radar,” the sources said.
On the developments, the sources said: “It is very clear that BJP is the dominant party in Maharashtra….it has shown that opposition unity at state level is not going to work and is a sort of warning shot for Opposition which are trying to build a nationwide unity and take on the BJP.”
The weakest party in the MVA (in terms of numbers), the Congress has now emerged as the strongest opposition party and would stake claim for the post of leader of the opposition.