As Punjab goes to vote, will AAP be the gamechanger?

Just before the finish line, the AAP, with all its impressive poll campaign and a palpable undercurrent in its favour, finds itself between a rock and a hard place in a bitter contest for the 117 assembly seats in Punjab that votes on Sunday.

From a bipolar contest that Punjab saw for a long time, this election, for the first time, witnesses a tough contest between five political parties in poll fray. This throws open the possibility of split votes and a likely hung assembly on March 10. The clamor for change has been palpable with AAP having an edge, especially in the Malwa region which accounts for the majority of seats.

But the ghost of AAP’s maiden assembly election debut in 2017, when it lost both track and traction towards the end for allegedly romanticising with radical separatists in the border state, has come to haunt the AAP again. The euphoria for the AAP in 2017 was much the same, but the party still lost. The Hindu voters then felt alienated amid indications that Arvind Kejriwal was hobnobbing with radicals. Just before the elections now, Kejriwal’s estranged founding member of the AAP and poet Kumar Vishwas stirred a hornet’s nest alleging that Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal wanted to be ‘either the Punjab CM or the PM of Khalistan'.

Read more: Youth Congress protests near Kejriwal residence over allegation of connection with Punjab separatist

Congress CM Charanjit Singh Channi jumped in to cash in on the controversy. He wrote a letter to home minister Amit Shah claiming that Sikhs for Justice, a banned organisation, is in constant support of the AAP. In 2017 Kejriwal spent a night at the house of an ex-militant which cost the party dearly, reducing it to just 20 seats.The AAP may now find itself in a quandary over something it wanted to stay away from this time around, but will this be the undoing of the AAP? Kejriwal has termed the allegations by Kumar Vishwas as laughable.

Sunday elections in this border state nevertheless remains a bitter multi-cornered contest between the ruling Congress, the AAP, the SAD-BSP, the BJP-Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) alliance, and the farmers’ formation SSM.

The political dynamics have altered dramatically. The Congress old warhorse's unceremonious exit as CM led to the formation of Capt’s fledgling PLC. The BJP was abandoned by its 23-year old ally, the SAD, which is now in poll fray with Mayawati’s BSP.
Both PLC and the BJP found a foot in the door and turned allies. The Congress in this election expunged its four-and-a half year of its rule under Capt, while seeking votes in the name of the Channi-Navjot Sidhu duo and Channi’s 111 days of governance towards the fag end.

Political parties have heavily played the 'Dalit card'. The Congress at the cost of Sidhu’s annoyance named Channi, a Dalit leader, as its CM face. The SAD too has tried to offset it’s losses after axing BJP as its ally. The century-old party tied up with BSP with an eye on SC votes. The rookie SSM, that was a creation out of the farmer’s movement against the now repealed farm laws, has been struggling. The issues of drugs and sacrilege dominated the campaign. The AAP showcased its Delhi mode of better schools and apt healthcare infrastructure with a call for a change and chance. CM Channi, Navjot Sidhu, Partap Bajwa, the Badal father-son duo, Bikram Majithia, Bhagwant Mann, Capt Amarinder Singh are all in the poll fray.

Punjab has over 2.14 core electorates including 1.02 crore women and 727 transgender persons. There are 1304 candidates in the fray, inluding 315 contesting candidates with criminal records. Over 4.4 lakh people above the age of 80 years and 162 Covid-19 patients have been offered Form 12D for postal ballot facility. Ever since the model code of conduct, various enforcement teams have seized valuables worth Rs 500.70 crores..

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