'Iron Lady' vs. Autocrat: Venezuela faces existential vote for President

Venezuela: Millions of Venezuelans head to the polls Sunday for a presidential vote that represents an existential moment for the socialist movement that has governed the oil-rich nation for 25 years.

Over the course of a generation, Chavismo, as the movement is called, has shattered the nation's democracy, presided over an extraordinary economic contraction unlike any seen outside of war, and become the source of one of the largest migrant crises in the world.

The election, held on the birthday of the movement's founder, Hugo Chávez, pits Chávez's successor, President Nicolás Maduro, against the previously little-known Edmundo González, a former diplomat.

But González is essentially the surrogate candidate for María Corina Machado, a hard-charging former lawmaker who has emerged as the nation's newest opposition leader, rallying people behind a promise to restore democracy and bring Venezuelans back home. When Maduro's government barred Machado from running for office, her coalition managed to get González on the ballot instead.

(A supporter of Margaret Thatcher, the conservative icon, some analysts and political commentators have taken to calling Machado the "Iron Lady.")

The outcome of the election is anyone's guess, and the entire nation is on edge. Maduro has a long history of tilting elections in his favor -- it has been almost impossible for millions of people abroad to register to vote -- and even of inventing election results.

But polls and dozens of interviews around the country show high enthusiasm for González. Campaign events held by Machado have taken on the feel of mass pilgrimages, with supporters filling avenue after avenue, and crying in her arms as she passes through town, begging her for radical change.

If González wins and is allowed to take office, he is likely to face immense challenges, including the fact that nearly all institutions -- including the legislature -- remain in the hands of Maduro's party or are loyal to the president.

Both sides appear to believe that they have the numbers to win.

The opposition has relied on polls that give González an advantage of around 20 points. But people close to the government say their private polls show a much closer race.

If the opposition fails to secure a landslide, the government's usual tactics of voter suppression, coercion and confusion could be enough to secure Maduro a win, analysts say.

The candidates held dueling closing campaign rallies

Maduro can still attract a crowd, and at his closing rally in the capital, Caracas, he boomed into a microphone, painting the vote as a choice between the "extreme right" and a compassionate socialism that offered peace and security.

"Fascists!" he shouted. "You will not return!"

Some people said they had come out of loyalty to Chávez, or out of fear that the opposition's market-friendly agenda would cost them their jobs.

Most participants arrived at the city center on government-organized buses and wore the insignia of the state agencies where they worked. The country's public sector employees have been a bedrock of Chavismo's support.

But apathy was also apparent. As Maduro spoke, calling for loyalty and demonizing the opposition, many rally participants lounged in the shade, roamed downtown streets, or drifted toward the hundreds of buses waiting to take them home.

José Gregorio Urbina, a retired official for Caracas' local government, said he would vote for Maduro because he represented "the humble, the dispossessed, the Indigenous, the workers and all the people who have resisted the empire."

At the Machado-González rally, held in a wealthier part of the city, thousands blew whistles and revved motorcycle engines in a din that lasted hours.

In the crowd, Mairene Reimi, who owns a blood-testing lab, called Machado's mobilization "the rebirth of Venezuela."

Most Venezuelans live in a constant search for the bare necessities, she said, hoping for enough electricity or gas to cook, or enough money to make ends meet.

The event culminated in the dark, phones held aloft, with supporters singing the national anthem.

Standing on top of a truck-turned-stage, Machado called the vote "much more than an electoral fight."

"It is a spiritual struggle," she said, "and we go hand in hand with God."

A socialist movement that once electrified many in Venezuela

In 1998, Chávez swept to power in a democratic election, promising to lift millions out of poverty and vowing to remake a system run by a corrupt elite. Today, his movement runs a state widely viewed as corrupt, his party's leaders are the elite -- and Machado is promising to oust them.

Maduro has maintained his grip by punishing dissidents, crushing protests and co-opting state institutions. At the same time, the socialist model he once hailed has given way to brutal capitalism, economists say, with a small state-connected minority controlling much of the nation's wealth.

Maduro is holding an election in part because of international pressure: The United States has promised to lift punishing economic sanctions on the country's oil industry only if the country holds a competitive presidential vote.

These sanctions, the strictest of which Washington imposed in 2019, have strangled an already crippled economy.

Many analysts believe Maduro never thought Machado and González would gain so much momentum.

Election results could come Sunday night, but likely much later

The country's election authority is controlled by an acolyte of the ruling party, Elvis Amoroso, who is in charge of releasing the vote count to the public.

Many in Venezuela believe that Maduro has little incentive to allow for a result that shows he has lost. The United States has accused him of narco-trafficking and has offered $15 million for information leading to his arrest. The International Criminal Court is investigating him for crimes against humanity. Both make him vulnerable to prosecution if he leaves office.

Francisco Rodríguez, a Venezuelan economist and professor of international affairs at the University of Denver, said he could foresee three possible outcomes.

First, the vote could mark the beginning of a democratic transition. Second, it could mark the complete consolidation of Maduro's power.

Or, he said, "this could be -- and is what I fear most -- the moment of an escalation and a deepening of the conflict, the destructive conflict that continues to do more damage to society and the Venezuelan economy."

Whatever result is announced, it is very likely to be disputed by the other side, possibly leading to protest and a violent response from the armed forces.

The next president wouldn't assume power until January, leaving a lengthy period for uncertainty.

In recent interviews in Caracas and Maracaibo, a major city on the country's Western edge, some supporters of Machado vowed to take to the streets if Maduro declared victory.

Luis Bravo, who sold water at the Machado campaign event Thursday, wore a helmet he had also used in 2017 during huge anti-government protests, where he said that he saw a student get killed and that he nearly lost an eye to a tear gas projectile.

If Maduro declares a win and there are demonstrations, "I will go," Bravo said. "I am praying that it doesn't come to that because, obviously, a lot of people are going to die. But if I have to, I have to."

Others may choose to stay home, fearing a repeat of past rounds of repression. Or they'll simply leave, migrating to neighboring Colombia, or north to the United States.

The government has tried many ways to derail Machado's momentum

Authorities have jailed campaign workers, and blocked highways leading to the former lawmaker's events.

The government has suppressed the vote by making it very difficult for people abroad to register -- about 4 million people -- and tried to confuse voters by changing the names of polling places. Some voters have complained of having their polling stations switched without their knowledge.

This year's vote, said Luis Lander, director of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, an independent group, is already among the most flawed since Chávez took office.

In Caracas this past week, González was asked what position Machado would have in his government. "Whatever positions she wants," he responded.

On the other side, Maduro's attorney general, Tarek William Saab, said in an interview that while some people had become "intoxicated" by the opposition's message, "they are not the majority."

And he promised that there would be "a peaceful, massive, multitudinous election, without acts of violence."