Chennai: Sri Lanka heads to a watershed election on Saturday in which voters will not just elect the ninth Executive President but also a leader who they think will continue to steer the country out of its unprecedented 2022 economic crisis that saw the then powerful Rajapaksa being booted out of power.
As many 1.7 crore citizens, who are eligible to vote, will get to choose among a record 38 candidates in fray though the contest is likely to narrow down between incumbent Ranil Wickremasinghe, Sajith Premadasa of Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake, and Namal Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka People’s Party (SLPP).
The voting will begin at over 13,000 polling stations in 22 electoral districts across Sri Lanka at 7 am and end at 4 pm. Counting of votes polled in the epic election will then be taken to 45 counting centres and the process will begin Saturday evening and the results are expected to be announced by Sunday.
How is a President elected?
If no candidate gets 50 percent plus one vote in the polls, the Election Commission will invoke the legal provision for a run-off between the two front-runners. Going by opinion polls and the intense contest, it looks like a run-off cannot be avoided on Sunday, for the first time since the executive presidency made its debut in Sri Lanka.
The winning candidate is likely to take oath by Sunday evening and later form the council of ministers.
The September 21 election assumes humongous significance since this is the first time that Sri Lankans will head to polling stations after the Araghalya protests in the summer of 2022 following the economic crisis that saw inflation soaring and the country’s foreign exchange dwindling to a record low. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned following a popular uprising against him leading to Ranil getting elected as the president with support from the brothers.
The key issues
The economic reforms initiated by Ranil, who is contesting as an independent, aided by a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and generous Indian assistance have brought down the inflation and prices of essential commodities, but a majority of citizens still feel the pinch.
Economic issues dominate the minds of the voters with Anura Dissanayake of the JVP capturing the imagination of the young Sri Lanka, who played an active part in the 2022 protests, while other crucial issues like “equal rights” for Tamil-dominated provinces and a just solution for their decades-long problems taking the back seat.
India’s interest and the campaign pitch of candidates
India has huge stakes in Sri Lanka where it has invested immensely after the end of the civil war in 2009, more so after the 2022 economic crisis. New Delhi will feel extremely comfortable dealing with Ranil or Sajith as they are considered pro-India, while it will be tough to handle Anura, whose JVP had always fanned anti-India sentiments in the island.
Sensing that Anura was getting popular in Sri Lanka, India did invite him for talks in New Delhi in February this year. However, the going would be tough for India as Anura is perceived close to China and has already vowed to scrap a power project awarded to Indian conglomerate Adani Group.
Ranil sought votes in the name of continuity of reforms reminding people of the “quick transformation” in their lives, while Anura and Sajith harped on change that they said Sri Lanka badly needed. The rise of Anura as a frontrunner is particularly impressive as the JVP was never a serious contender in the past as it was viewed as a Marxist-leaning party that espoused Sinhala chauvinism.
Sajith, the son of assassinated President R Premadasa, has promised to abolish executive presidency, an assurance that has never been implemented by Presidents in the past. He is also the only nominee to have promised to implement the 13th Amendment of the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Accord that delegates power to provinces, a key demand of ethnic Tamils.
While Ranil’s economic reforms are appreciated widely, the lack of MPs and support base among the people, according to opinion polls, have pushed him to the third slot after Anura and Sajith, who are touted to be the frontrunners. Ranil is banking on support from the majority Sinhalas and the MPs from SLPP who owe allegiance to him, besides the minorities.
Tamils and their long-standing issues
However, the largest Tamil party, Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress have backed Sajith, with reports suggesting that he could poll a significant chunk of their votes, though the estate Tamils who live in Kandy and near-by areas are likely to back Ranil. Ethnic and estate Tamils, Tamil-speaking Muslims, and Christians, constitute 25 per cent of Sri Lanka’s population.
Tamils and Muslims would choose between Ranil and Sajith as Namal, whose family they feel was responsible for the last phase of the bloody civil war, and Anura, who hasn’t made any efforts to reconcile with them till the elections, are unlikely to be their choices.
Ethnic Tamil votes are likely to get split further with a coalition of Tamil political parties fielding Pakkiyaselvam Ariyanenthiran as the common candidate, exposing chinks within the largest minority community.
Tamils want the implementation of the 13th Amendment, an integral part of the Indo-Sri Lanka agreement signed in 1987, that allows devolution of powers to local governments in the north and the east. However, successive dispensations failed to implement the promise made to Tamils, who still feel like “second-class citizens” in their own country even 15 years after the end of the war.
The lack of unity among Tamils is not new and it only widened after the crushing defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamils Eelam in 2009. It is widely believed that the total boycott of the 2005 Presidential polls by Tamil which was a handiwork of the LTTE was the reason for Ranil to lose the election that saw Mahinda Rajapaksa emerging victorious by a small margin.
Mahinda proved to be the biggest nemesis of Velupillai Prabhakaran and LTTE as it was under this regime that the civil war came to an end with the death of the former in May 2009.