Haryana: BJP faces first test after below-par Lok Sabha performance, Congress look to reclaim power

New Delhi: In Haryana, BJP faces its first electoral challenge after a below-par performance in the Lok Sabha polls while the Congress is hoping to ride the tailwinds of recent success to reclaim power after a decade in exile.

Anticipating a strong pushback from the opposition in the face of anti-incumbency to its ‘double-engine’ government of 10 years, the ruling BJP in a pre-emptive move replaced former CM Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini in March this year. But the change of guard failed to impress the voters as BJP’s tally fell by half to 5 seats in the 2024 LS polls. In the previous elections, the party did not concede even a single seat to the opposition. 

Saini’s appointment, thus, was seen as an attempt by the ruling party to consolidate backward caste votes and sharpen the anti-Jat polarisation that has helped the BJP remain on top of state politics since 2014.
To end any ambiguities on the leadership issue, Home Minister Amit Shah has already announced Saini would remain the party’s face in the upcoming polls.

However, the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls showed Congress’ ability to build alternative social coalitions with the dominant Jat community, which makes up for almost 28% of the electorate, conceding spaces to other social groups in an attempt to stitch winning combinations in many seats.

The return of Dalit votes to the Congress folds amidst the impact of the ‘Constitution Change’ campaign and the party's assurance to scrap the ‘Agniveer’ scheme for Defence recruitments seems to have helped Congress recoup after many false starts.

Voters' disenchantment with Haryana regional parties like Om Prakash Chautalas' Indian National Lok Dal and Jananayak Janata Party of Dushyant Chautala has also helped Congress in restricting a major split in the Jat votes. 

The father-son duo of Bhupendra and Dipendra Hooda appear to be calling the shots in the state Congress again. After former minister Kiran Choudhary’s departure to the BJP, the anti-Hooda lobby in the Congress has weakened.

Former union minister Kumari Shailaja who recently won LS elections from Sirsa and national general secretary Randeep Surjewala remain in contention. Their prospects however depend on Congress’ tally in the new assembly.